The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the factors determining investment activity in the food industry of the Khatlon region of the Republic of Tajikistan, with an emphasis on regional specifics and import substitution strategy. The methodological basis of the study was vector autoregressive models (VAR) and their extended version with exogenous variables (VARX), including investment, production volume, lending rates, exports, electricity consumption, logistics and the number of enterprises. Based on quarterly data for 2018–2023, the stationarity of the series was tested, optimal lags were estimated, and causal relationships were analyzed using the Granger test. Practical recommendations include reducing rates to 15%, tax breaks for companies implementing deep processing of raw materials, and developing logistics infrastructure and digital platforms for demand monitoring. The study highlights the role of mathematical modeling in managing regional economies, reducing import dependence and strengthening food security.
investment activity, food industry, VAR-models, credit stake, export, variable exogenous, logistic infrastructure, regional economy
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